CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-05-06T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-05-06T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38729/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the northwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and GOES CCOR1. Not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2025-05-06T19:23Z to 2025-05-07T01:53Z. The source is a large-scale filament eruption occurring near N45W20 best seen in GOES SUVI 284 and SDO AIA 304 which begins to lift off as early as 2025-05-06T14:45Z. The full filament liftoff can be seen leaving the disk starting at 2025-05-06T17:00Z. The CME features include a faster protruding nose ahead of the bulk of the CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-05-10T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38735/1
Model Inputs:
2025-05-06T18:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=35.0, Speed=767.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2025-05-06T23:29Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-05-10T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 57.05 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-05-07T16:57Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy